Vladimir Putin‘s forces could seize yet more Ukrainian terrirotry before the vital US aid reaches the frontlines, warned a think tank.
The first batch of the $61 billion (£48 billion) aid from Washington is set to arrive “in a matter of days”, but the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cautioned that this may not be quick enough.
The think tank said: “Russian forces are likely attempting to seize as much territory as possible before the arrival of US security assistance significantly improves Ukrainian defensive capabilities in the coming weeks.”
It added that Russian forces could intensify its offensive in the Donetsk region “because the area provides greater opportunities for making more rapid tactical gains despite the relative operational insignificance of those gains.”
The think tank claimed that Russia is making gains beyong Avdiivka, advancing towards Pokrovsk – a major logistical hub for the army in Donetsk – and the city of Chasiv Yar.
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Pokrovsk is particularly important as it lies at the intersection of railways and roads, and has been targeted by numerous Russian strikes since the beginning of the war.
The think tank said the offensive to capture Chasiv Yar “offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances”.
It added: “[Its capture] would likely allow Russian forces to launch subsequent offensive operations against cities that form a significant Ukrainian defensive belt in Donetsk Oblast.
“Russian forces do pose a credible threat of seizing Chasiv Yar, although they may not be able to do so rapidly.”
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Elina Beketova, of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington DC, told Newsweek: “It’s likely that Russian soldiers will target settlements adjacent to the occupied city to test the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and further advance in the Donetsk region.”
Retired US Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian also told the outlet: “Ukraine lost about 10km of territory when it retreated from Avdiivka, a city that the Russians had mostly surrounded.
“To get to Pokrovsk, the Russians will need to push five times further. This is more territory than they have captured since March 2022.”
