Comparing nowadays Russian territorial gains to early invasion progress can be misleading

Comparing nowadays Russian territorial gains to early invasion progress can be misleading — ISW analysis

Posted by Admin October 30, 2024 Entertainment

Ukrainian soldier at the Southern Ukraine frontline, Oct. 25, 2024 (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Antypenko)

Despite Western media suggesting that Russian forces have advanced in the fall 2024 at their fastest pace since the invasion’s early days, this comparison is misleading, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its report on Oct. 29.

This statement comes after some major Western media called the pace of recent Russian advances in Ukraine the fastest since the war outbreak.

For instance, on Oct. 29, Welt reported that Russian forces captured over 470 square kilometers in eastern Ukraine in October—their largest gain since March 2022.

AFP cited map data showing an advance of approximately 478 square kilometers since early October.

Reuters also reported that from October 20 to 27, Russia captured 196.1 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.

A new ISW report, however, contradicts these statements – as the analytics see no increase in Russian advances speed when comparing frontline situation in 2022 and 2024.

“While the pace of Russian advancements in Ukraine has indeed increased over the past few weeks, it remains relatively slow, consistent with a positional war rather than rapid mechanized maneuvers,” the agency wrote.

“This emphasizes the stagnation of Russian progress after more than two and a half years of war.”

Russian forces advanced at an average daily rate of 1,265 square kilometers in March 2022— roughly 90 times faster than the 14 square kilometers per day they averaged in September 2024, ISW estimated.

The first months of the full-scale invasion saw swift Russian advances deep into Ukrainian territory, resulting in the temporary occupation of large parts of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts. In contrast, Russia’s recent gains are characterized by small, localized, tactical advances.

As of Oct. 1, 2024, Russian forces captured Vuhledar and continued advancing north and northwest of the city, as well as making tactical gains in and around Selydove (a district southeast of Pokrovsk). While these advances are tactically significant, they do not indicate an overall increase in Russian advancement speed across the entire front line, most of which remains largely static. Furthermore, this progress remains incomparable to the initial phase of the war.

The pace of Russian advancements aligns with ISW’s recent assessment that Russian command likely ordered an increase in mechanized assaults across the front ahead of the muddy autumn season.