A recent report from the Rhodus Intelligence team has revealed that Russia‘s missile manufacturing industry is on the verge of collapse due to a critical shortage of one key component—Western machinery. This shortage stems from Russia‘s over-reliance on computerised manufacturing equipment from Western Europe and East Asia, which has been restricted due to international sanctions and geopolitical tensions.

The report explains that after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia outsourced much of its industrial production to foreign countries, particularly those aligned with the United States.

The modernisation of Russia‘s military infrastructure during the 2000s and 2010s relied heavily on mass imports of computerised manufacturing equipment.

This equipment forms the backbone of Russia‘s missile production capacity, as noted by Rhodus Intelligence: “Putin’s military buildup of the 2000s-2010s was based on mass import of computerised manufacturing equipment from the US allies in Western Europe and in East Asia. As these supplies formed the Russian missiles manufacturing base, production was hooked on a permanent needle of spare parts, expendables and software support from the US allies.”

The mass replacement of manually controlled Soviet-era machines with automated CNC (Computer Numerical Control) equipment significantly boosted Russia‘s machining capacity, enabling it to manufacture sophisticated weaponry.

However, this progress came at a steep cost—Russia‘s near-total dependence on Western technology, software, and integrated manufacturing solutions, which are currently out of reach due to international sanctions.

The report also clarifies China’s limited role in Russia‘s military buildup: “Contrary to the popular view, China has played a very limited role in the Russian military buildup until recently. Being a catching development producer, it could rarely provide the Russian missiles industry with the higher-end equipment it needed.

“These limitations of Chinese capabilities explain the otherwise puzzling absence of Chinese tools on the Russian missile plants. As of 2024, China is only capable of providing the lower end non-integrated products which cannot and will not substitute the Western European integrated solutions in the short to medium term perspective.”

Given these challenges, Russia‘s ability to sustain its missile production in the face of ongoing geopolitical pressures is in serious jeopardy.

The findings suggest that without access to Western technology, Russia‘s missile manufacturing infrastructure may face significant setbacks, affecting the country’s military capabilities in the long term.